Predictor Of Short-term Mortality Research Articles

Development and validation of models for predicting mortality in intertrochanteric fracture surgery patients with perioperative blood transfusion: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

The association between allogenic blood transfusions (ABT) and all-cause mortality in surgically treated hip fracture patients with perioperative transfusion (STHFPT) remained unknown. We aim to introduce transfusion-related factors, new variables to develop and validate models to predict mortality in these patients. A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted with STHFPT hospitalized during Jan. 2018 and Jun. 2021. The database was divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 70% to 30% using the randomization method. All participants received a minimum of 2-year follow-up and all participants' overall and eight time-specific survival status were recorded. Prediction models were developed using multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression for variable selection. Model performance was measured by determining discrimination, calibration, overall model performance or precision, and utility. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test robustness of the results. A total of 7074 consecutive patients were prospectively screened and assessed for eligibility to participate. Finally, 2490 patients met our inclusion and exclusion criteria and 1743 (70%) patients were randomized to the training cohort and 747 (30%) to the validation cohort. The median duration of follow-up was 38.4 months (IQR 28.0-62.0). Our novel models highlight that preoperative transfusion is of significance for short-term mortality while mid-term outcomes are predominantly determined by severe complications, pulmonary complications, and advanced age. Our models showed high discriminative power, good calibration and precision for mortality prediction in both training and validation cohorts, especially in short-term mortality prediction. We introduce transfusion-related factors, new variables to develop and validate models to predict mortality with STHFPT. The models can be further tested and updated with the ultimate goal of assisting in optimizing individual transfusion strategy.

A novel scoring system to predict short-term mortality after living donor liver transplantation for acute liver failure

Liver transplantation is often the only lifesaving option for acute liver failure (ALF); however, the predictors of short-term mortality (death within one year) after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for ALF have yet to be defined. We retrospectively collected patients ≥18 years old who underwent LDLT for ALF between 2010 and 2020 at 35 centers in Asia. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the clinical variables related to short-term mortality and establish a novel scoring system. The Kaplan–Meier method was performed to explore the association between the score and overall survival. Of 339 recipients, 46 (13.6%) died within one year after LDLT. Multivariate analyses revealed four independent risk factors of death: use of vasopressors or mechanical ventilation, higher model for end-stage liver disease score, and lower graft-to-recipient weight ratio. The internally validated c-statistic of the short-term mortality after transplant (SMT) score derived from these four variables was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74–0.87). The SMT score successfully stratified recipients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with 1-year overall survival rates of 96%, 80%, and 50%, respectively. In conclusion, our novel SMT score based on four predictors will guide ALF recipient and living donor selection.

Development and validation of prognostic machine learning models for short- and long-term mortality among acutely admitted patients based on blood tests

Several scores predicting mortality at the emergency department have been developed. However, all with shortcomings either simple and applicable in a clinical setting, with poor performance, or advanced, with high performance, but clinically difficult to implement. This study aimed to explore if machine learning algorithms could predict all-cause short- and long-term mortality based on the routine blood test collected at admission. Methods: We analyzed data from a retrospective cohort study, including patients > 18 years admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of Copenhagen University Hospital Hvidovre, Denmark between November 2013 and March 2017. The primary outcomes were 3-, 10-, 30-, and 365-day mortality after admission. PyCaret, an automated machine learning library, was used to evaluate the predictive performance of fifteen machine learning algorithms using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Data from 48,841 admissions were analyzed, of these 34,190 (70%) were randomly divided into training data, and 14,651 (30%) were in test data. Eight machine learning algorithms achieved very good to excellent results of AUC on test data in a of range 0.85–0.93. In prediction of short-term mortality, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), leukocyte counts and differentials, Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were the best predictors, whereas prediction of long-term mortality was favored by age, LDH, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), albumin, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Conclusion: The findings suggest that measures of biomarkers taken from one blood sample during admission to the ED can identify patients at high risk of short-and long-term mortality following emergency admissions.

The Predictive Role of Lactate in the Emergency Department in Patients with Severe Dyspnea.

An accurate identification of patients at the need for prioritized diagnostics and care are crucial in the emergency department (ED). Blood gas (BG) analysis is a widely available laboratory test, which allows to measure vital parameters, including markers of ventilation and perfusion. The aim of our analysis was to assess whether blood gas parameters in patients with dyspnea at an increased risk of respiratory failure admitted to the ED can predict short-term outcomes. The study group eventually consisted of 108 patients, with available BG analysis. The clinical and laboratory parameters were retrospectively evaluated, and three groups were distinguished-arterial blood gas (ABG), venous blood gas (VBG), and mixed blood gas. The primary endpoint was short-term, all-cause mortality during the follow-up of median (quartile 1-quartile 3) 2 (1-4) months. The independent risk factors for mortality that could be obtained from blood gas sampling were evaluated. The short-term mortality was 35.2% (38/108). Patients who died were more frequently initially assigned to the red triage risk group, more burdened with comorbidities, and the median SpO2 on admission was significantly lower than in patients who survived the follow-up period. In the multivariable analysis, lactate was the strongest independent predictor of death, with 1 mmol/L increasing all-cause mortality by 58% in ABG (95% CI: 1.01-2.47), by 80% in VBG (95% CI: 1.13-2.88), and by 68% in the mixed blood gas analysis (95% CI: 1.22-2.31), what remained significant in VBG and mixed group after correction for base excess. In each group, pH, pO2, and pCO2 did not predict short-term mortality. In patients admitted to the ED due to dyspnea, at risk of respiratory failure, lactate levels in arterial, venous, and mixed blood samples are independent predictors of short-term mortality.

Risk factors for short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end stage renal disease: a scoping review

ObjectivesThere is a lack of prognostic information to guide the prediction of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim was to review the risk factors that influenced the risk of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with ESRD.MethodsMEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for articles published between 2000 and 2020. Articles describing risk factors predicting short-term mortality (≤ 3 years) in patients with ESRD were included. Four reviewers independently performed title, abstract, full text screening and data extraction. Assessment of risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool checklist.Results20,840 articles were identified and 113 papers were included for this review. Of the 113 papers, 6.2% included only peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, 67.3% included only hemodialysis (HD) patients, 20.4% included both PD and HD patients, with the remaining papers featuring patients on conservative management or awaiting renal transplant. Risk factors were categorised into 13 domains: 1)demographics/ lifestyle, 2) comorbidities 3)intradialytic blood pressure, 4)biomarkers, 5)cardiovascular measurements, 6)frailty status, 7)medications, 8)treatment related indicators, 9)renal related parameters, 10)health status, 11)cause of ESRD, 12)access to healthcare care/ information and, 13)proxy measures for poor health. C-reactive protein(CRP), age, and functional status were observed to have higher percentage of instances of being significantly associated with all-cause mortality.ConclusionCommonly examined risk factors observed from this review may be used to build a general prognostic model for patients with ESRD, with specific treatment related risk factors added on to enhance the accuracy of the models.

The predictive value of the HALP score for no-reflow phenomenon and short-term mortality in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

ABSTRACT Objective ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a medical emergency demanding immediate intervention, and primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) is the standard of care for this condition. While PCI has proven highly effective, a subset of patients experience the devastating no-reflow phenomenon, and some face increased short-term mortality. The Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) score, a novel biomarker-based tool, has recently surfaced as an innovative predictor of these adverse outcomes. This study aims to investigate the groundbreaking findings that designate a low HALP score as a robust risk factor for no-reflow and short-term mortality in STEMI patients. Methods 1817 consecutive STEMI patients who underwent pPCI were included in this retrospective study, and the patients were divided into two groups according to whether no-reflow developed or not, and the HALP scores of the groups were compared. In addition, short-term mortality was compared between the study groups according to their HALP score values. The predictive ability of the HALP score for no-reflow was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results No-reflow developed in 198 (10.1%) of the patients included in the study. HALP score value was found to be significantly lower in the no-reflow group (27 ± 13 vs 47 ± 24, p < 0.001). After multivariable adjustment, the HALP score was an independent predictor of no-reflow (OR, 0.923, 95% CI, 0.910–0.935, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the HALP score showed good discrimination for no-reflow (AUC, 0.771, 95% CI, 0.737–0.805, p < 0.001). In addition, HALP score was determined to be an independent predictor for short-term mortality (HR, 0.955, 95% CI, 0.945–0.966, p < 0.001). Conclusions HALP score can independently predict the development of no-reflow and short-term mortality in STEMI patients undergoing pPCI.

Evaluation of pan-Immuno-Inflammation value for In-hospital mortality in acute pulmonary embolism patients.

Pan-immuno-inflammation value (PIV) is a new and comprehensive index that reflects both the immune response and systemic inflammation in the body. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic relevance of PIV in predicting in-hospital mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) patients and to compare it with the well-known risk scoring system, PE severity index (PESI), which is commonly used for a short-term mortality prediction in such patients. In total, 373 acute PE patients diagnosed with contrast-enhanced computed tomography were included in the study. Detailed cardiac evaluation of each patient was performed and PESI and PIV were calculated. In total, 60 patients died during their hospital stay. The multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that baseline heart rate, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, lactate dehydrogenase, PIV, and PESI were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in acute PE patients. When comparing with PESI, PIV was non-inferior in terms of predicting the survival status in patients with acute PE. In our study, we found that the PIV was statistically significant in predicting in-hospital mortality in acute PE patients and was non-inferior to the PESI.

Role of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio at the time of arrival to the emergency room as a predictor of short-term mortality in trauma patients with severe trauma team activation.

Platelet-to-Lymphocyte ratio (PLR) has been studied as a prognostic factor for various diseases and traumas. This study examined the utility of PLR as a tool for predicting 30-day mortality in patients experiencing severe trauma. This study included 139 patients who experienced trauma and fulfilled ≥1 criteria for activation of the hospital's severe trauma team. Patients were divided into non-survivor and survivor groups. Mean PLR values were compared between the groups, the optimal PLR cut-off value was determined, and mortality and survival analyses were performed. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS ver. 26.0. The threshold of statistical significance was P<0.05. There was a significant difference in mean (±standard deviation) PLR between the non-survivor (n=36) and survivor (n=103) groups (53.4±30.1 vs. 89.9±53.3, respectively; P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed an optimal PLR cut-off of 65.35 (sensitivity, 0.621; specificity, 0.694, respectively; area under the ROC curve, 0.742), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a significant difference in mortality rate between the two groups. PLR can be calculated quickly and easily from a routine complete blood count, which is often performed in the emergency department for individuals who experience trauma. The PLR is useful for predicting 30-day mortality in trauma patients with severe trauma team activation.

Abstract TP262: Trends, Odds, Burdens and Outcomes of Metabolically Healthy Obesity in Stroke Related Hospitalizations of Elderly Patients - A Nationwide Analysis, 2016-2019

Background: Obesity has been associated with an increase in the risk of stroke and poor outcomes. Meanwhile, Metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) trends are understudied in association with stroke. In this study, we aim to analyze the MHO trends and outcomes with respect to Stroke. Methods: We queried the National Inpatient Sample (2016-2019) to identify Stroke hospitalizations in the elderly population (%E2%89%A565 years) with vs without MHO by using ICD-10 codes after excluding patients with Hypertension, analyze, and Diabetes Mellitus. Patients were categorized into a metabolically healthy obese MHO+ve cohort, BMI&gt; 30, and MHO-ve cohort, BMI&lt;30. Trends, demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes were then compared between the two cohorts. Results: Overall Prevalence of stroke was higher in the MHO-ve cohort (2.4% vs 1.4% p&lt;0.001) compared to the MHO+ve cohort. MHO-ve cohort often consisted of higher median age (78 vs 73 years), Males (48.2% vs 36.4%), Hispanics (5.1% vs 4.7%), whites (83.8% vs 82.3%), Asians (2.4% vs 1.1%) vs MHO +ve cohort (p&lt;0.001). The rate of death (15.9% vs 14.4%), Home health care requirements (16.6% vs 12.4%) was also higher in the MHO-ve cohort vs MHO+ve cohort. Conversely, the MHO+ve cohort had higher rates of smokers, Prior MI, Hypothyroidism, CKD, and OSA in comparison to the MHO-ve cohort. Univariate and Multivariate regression analysis adjusted for confounders did not show any significant association between Stroke and MHO. Conclusion: Excluding other cardiovascular disease risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hyperlipidemia, the non-significant difference in in-hospital mortality between elderly stroke patients with vs without MHO suggests that MHO might not be a significant independent predictor of short-term mortality. Other factors likely influence this relationship. Further research is warranted for the investigation of the factors influencing the absence of a relationship between stroke and MHO.

LncRNA HOTTIP as a diagnostic biomarker for acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with sepsis and to predict the short-term clinical outcome: a case-control study

BackgroundThe present research aims to investigate the clinical diagnostic value of LncRNA HOXA distal transcript antisense RNA (HOTTIP) in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of sepsis and its predictive significance for mortality.MethodsOne hundred eighteenth patients with sepsis and 96 healthy individuals were enrolled. RT-qPCR to examine HOTTIP levels. The incidence of ARDS and death was recorded. The diagnostic significance of HOTTIP in sepsis ARDS was examined using ROC and logistic regression analysis. The correlation between HOTTIP and disease severity was evaluated using Pearson’s coefficients. Kaplan-Meier analysis and COX regression were employed to examine the predictive significance of mortality. Validation of HOTTIP target miRNA by dual-luciferase assay.ResultsHOTTIP was persistently up-regulated in patients with ARDS sepsis than in patients without ARDS patients (P < 0.05). HOTTIP was a risk factor for the development of ARDS, which could be diagnosed in ARDS patients from non-ARDS patients (AUC = 0.847). Both the SOFA score (r = 0.6793) and the APACHE II score (r = 0.6384) were positively correlated with the HOTTIP levels. Furthermore, serum HOTTIP was an independent predictor of short-term mortality (HR = 4.813. 95%CI: 1.471–15.750, P = 0.009) and noticeably predicted the occurrence of short-term death (log rank = 0.020). miR-574-5p, a target miRNA for HOTTIP, was reduced in patients with sepsis ARDS and negatively correlated with HOTTIP.ConclusionsThe presence of HOTTIP serves as a diagnostic biomarker for the occurrence of ARDS, exhibits correlation with disease severity, and provides predictive value of short-term mortality in sepsis patients. HOTTIP may be involved in ARDS progression by targeting miR-574-5p.

A nomogram for the prediction of short-term mortality in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage requiring mechanical ventilation: a post-hoc analysis.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a devastating stroke subtype with high morbidity and mortality. Although several studies have developed a prediction model in aSAH to predict individual outcomes, few have addressed short-term mortality in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The study aimed to construct a user-friendly nomogram to provide a simple, precise, and personalized prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with aSAH requiring mechanical ventilation. We conducted a post-hoc analysis based on a retrospective study in a French university hospital intensive care unit (ICU). All patients with aSAH requiring mechanical ventilation from January 2010 to December 2015 were included. Demographic and clinical variables were collected to develop a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method was performed to identify predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram to predict short-term mortality were tested using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Admission GCS, SAPS II, rebleeding, early brain injury (EBI), and external ventricular drain (EVD) were significantly associated with 30-day mortality in patients with aSAH requiring mechanical ventilation. Model A incorporated four clinical factors available in the early stages of the aSAH: GCS, SAPS II, rebleeding, and EBI. Then, the prediction model B with the five predictors was developed and presented in a nomogram. The predictive nomogram yielded an AUC of 0.795 [95% CI, 0.731-0.858], and in the internal validation with bootstrapping, the AUC was 0.780. The predictive model was well-calibrated, and decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. We have developed two models and constructed a nomogram that included five clinical characteristics to predict 30-day mortality in patients with aSAH requiring mechanical ventilation, which may aid clinical decision-making.

Predicting 60-Day Mortality in a Home-Care Service: Development of a New Inter-RAI 49-Frailty Index in Patients with Chronic Disease and without a Cancer Diagnosis

ObjectiveFrailty Index (FI) is used to define the level of frailty in various clinical settings. Fifteen- and 26-item FIs have been demonstrated to predict 1-year mortality and intensity of care in home care (HC) and palliative home care (PHC). The objective of this study was to develop a new FI to predict the 60-day risk of death or transition to a PHC service after the initiation of an HC service in patients with chronic disease and without a cancer diagnosis. DesignRetrospective cohort study. Setting and ParticipantsPatients 18 years and older followed in an HC service of a “Frailty Department-Local Palliative Care Network” from January 1, 2017, to October 31, 2021. MethodsA 49-item FI (FI-49) was developed selecting variables within the standardized international Residential Assessment Instrument assessments (interRAI-HC) and compared to existing FIs with 15 and 26 variables. ResultsA total of 2099 patients were included in the study with a median age of 80.0 years (IQR: 72.0-86.0) and a predominantly female population (62.4%). Among these patients, 8% died or were transferred to PHC within the 60-day follow-up. The FI-49 demonstrated a higher ability to predict 60-day mortality (C index 0.8165, 95% CI 0.7848-0.8481) compared to the 26- and 15-item FI. An FI-49 cutoff of 0.33 was also selected to provide clinicians with a more practical approach (C-index of 0.7044, 95% CI 0.6796-0.7292). Conclusion and ImplicationThe FI-49 is a good predictor of short-term mortality or transition to palliative care among older patients referred to an HC service. The automatic calculation of this tool could facilitate more appropriate care planning and the correct allocation of healthcare resources, especially considering the rapid ageing of the population.

Predictors of short-term survival in cardiac valvular surgery patients with intra-aortic balloon pump implantation.

Intro-aortic balloon pump (IABP) is widely used in cardiac surgery patients nowadays. This study aimed to analyze the predictor of short-term survival in cardiac valvular surgery patients with intra-aortic balloon pump implantation. This was a retrospective study and a total of 102 cardiac valvular surgery patients who received intra-aortic balloon pump implantation were consecutively included. We retrospectively collected the baseline characteristics and short-term outcomes. Baseline characteristics were compared between survivors with non-survivors, and logistic regression was performed to identify predictors for short-term mortality. Among all the patients, there were 71 (69.6%) patients successfully weaned from IABP and survived to discharge, the other 31 (30.4%) patients failed to wean from IABP and died within the first 30days after surgery. When compared with non-survivors, survivors had a higher proportion of males (62% vs 32.3%, p = 0.006), a lower rate of Atrial fibrillation (38% vs 62%, p < 0.03). After IABP implantation, vasoactive drug use was significantly lower in survivors compared with non-survivors, and survivors showed significant improvements in cardiac function and urine volume. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that atrial fibrillation and combined use of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) were significant independent predictors for short-term mortality. Timely implantation of IABP can improve patients' cardiac and renal function and reduce the dosage of vasoactive drugs. Atrial fibrillation and combined use of CRRT are independent predictors for short-term mortality in patients who underwent cardiac valvular surgery with IABP implantation.

Predictors of short-term mortality in HIV-infected patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit

Introduction: Historically, complications of HIV infection have been related to admissions to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Despite therapeutic advances, the results of the analysis of prognostic factors in patients with HIV/AIDS have varied, including late diagnosis and failure to adhere to antiretroviral treatment. Objective: To evaluate the predictors of short-term mortality in HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU, as well as their sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Methods: A retrospective cohort study including patients admitted to the ICU of a teaching hospital from 2003 through 2012. Data were collected from medical records after the Institutional Review Board approval. Results: 148 HIV-infected patients were identified and 131 were eligible. Among included patients, 42.75% were HIV new diagnoses and 5.34% had no information about the time of diagnosis. The main reasons for admission to the ICU were respiratory failure and sepsis while mortality was 70.23% between 2003 and 2012. Among the risk factors for mortality were low albumin, high APACHE, low CD4+ T lymphocyte count, and not using antiretroviral therapy. Conclusion: Despite the availability of diagnosis and treatment for HIV-infected individuals, the number of new cases of advanced Aids diagnosed in high-complexity services such as ICU is high, as well as the non-use of combination antiretroviral therapy. It is necessary to strengthen anti-HIV screening to detect and treat more cases in the early stages.

Clinical assessment and short-term mortality prediction of older adults with altered mental status using RASS and 4AT tools

BackgroundAltered mental status (AMS) in older adults is a common reason for admission to emergency departments (EDs) and usually results from delirium, stupor, or coma. It is important to proficiently identify underlying factors and anticipate clinical outcomes for those patients. AimThe primary objective of this study was to reveal and compare the clinical outcomes and etiologic factors of older patients with delirium, stupor, and coma. The secondary objective was to identify the 30-day mortality risk for those patients. MethodThe study was conducted as prospective and observational research. We included patients aged 65 years and older who presented with new-onset neurological and cognitive symptoms or worsening in baseline mental status. Patients who presented no change in their baseline mental status within 48 h and those who needed urgent interventions were excluded. Selected patients were assessed using RASS and 4AT tools and classified into three groups: stupor/coma, delirium, and no stupor/coma or delirium (no-SCD). Appropriate statistical tests were applied to compare these 3 groups. The 30-day mortality risks were identified by Cox survival analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve. ResultsA total of 236 patients were eligible for the study. Based on their RASS and 4AT test scores: 56 (23.7%), 94 (40.6%), and 86 (36.4%) patients formed the stupor/coma, delirium and no-SCD groups, respectively. There was no statistical difference in the three groups for gender, mean age, and medical comorbidities. Neurological (34.7%), infectious (19.4%), and respiratory (19.0%) diseases were the leading factors for AMS. Post-hoc tests showed that CCI scores of the delirium (6, IQR = 3) and stupor/coma (7, IQR = 3) groups were not significantly different. The 30-day mortality rates of stupor/coma, delirium, and no-SCD groups were 42.%, 15.9%, and 12.8%, respectively (p < 0.005). The hazard ratio of the stupor/coma group was 2.79 (CI: 95%, 1.36–5.47, p = 0.005). ConclusionAMS remains a significant clinical challenge in EDs. Using the RASS and 4AT tests provides benefits and advantages for emergency medicine physicians. Neurological, infectious, and respiratory diseases can lead to life-threatening mental deterioration. Our study revealed that long-term mortality predictor CCI scores were quite similar among patients with delirium, stupor, or coma. However, the short-term mortality was significantly increased in the stupor/coma patients and they had 2.8 times higher 30-day mortality risk than others.

Prevalence of, association with, severity of, and prognostic role of serum hemoglobin level in acutely decompensated heart failure patients

BackgroundThe role of hemoglobin (Hb) level in the short-term prognosis of patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) remains a matter of debate. We aimed to declare the prevalence of, association with, severity of, and prognostic role of SHL with ADHF.MethodsUsing the data from the Persian Registry Of Cardiovascular Disease/ Heart Failure (PROVE-HF) study, we assessed the association between anemia and polycythemia (Hb < 13 g/dLit, > 16.5 g/dLit in males and < 12 g/dLit, and > 16 g/dLit in females, respectively) and short-term mortality using Cox proportional hazard modeling, with adjustment of clinically relevant variables.ResultsOf 3652 ADHF patients, anemia was seen in 1673 patients (48.40%). The prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe anemia was 42.33% (n = 1546), 3.23% (n = 118), and 0.24% (n = 9), respectively. Also, 422 patients (11.55%) had polycythemia. Compared to non-anemic patients, anemic patients were mainly male, older, and were more likely to have diabetes mellitus (DM), renal dysfunction, hypertension (HTN), and thyroid disease. Significant predictors of short-term mortality were lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure, lower Hb level, and higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Anemic patients had higher all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.213, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.054–1.396]. Moderate anemia increased mortality by approximately 80% in males (aHR 1.793, 95% CI 1.308–2.458) and females (aHR 1.790, 95% CI 1.312–2.442), respectively. Polycythemia had no association with short-term mortality in both genders (P-value > 0.05).ConclusionsThis study revealed that anemia is an adverse prognostic factor for short-term mortality in ADHF patients, with higher mortality in moderately anemic patients.

PB0860 Von Willebrand Factor is an Independent Predictor of Short-Term Mortality in Acutely Ill Patients with Cirrhosis

PB0860 Von Willebrand Factor is an Independent Predictor of Short-Term Mortality in Acutely Ill Patients with Cirrhosis

Von Willebrand factor is an independent predictor of short-term mortality in acutely ill patients with cirrhosis.

Levels of von Willebrand factor (VWF) are elevated in patients with cirrhosis, and correlate well with disease severity. In patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC), plasma VWF is associated with mortality. The value of VWF in predicting short-term mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is, however, unclear. We included patients with DC (n = 111) and ACLF (n = 105). We measured VWF levels and correlated these with other laboratory parameters and prediction models for mortality. Also, we assessed the predictive value of VWF in the prediction of 90- and 30-day mortality in patients with DC and ACLF, respectively, and compared this to the predictive value of clinically used prediction models. Finally, we determined the optimal cut-off value for VWF in patients with ACLF. Sixteen of 111 (14%) patients with DC and 35 of 105 (33%) with ACLF died within 90 and 30 days, respectively. VWF was associated with mortality and correlated closely with other prediction models. In patients with ACLF, VWF levels had a discrimination for 30-day mortality comparable with these models and accurately identified ACLF patients with high 30-day mortality risk. Levels of VWF associate closely with risk of mortality in patients with DC and ACLF, and may have predictive utility as a laboratory marker of prognosis. Further research is warranted to assess the additional value of VWF in the prediction of mortality and associated complications in chronic liver failure syndromes.

The Value of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Identify Bacterial Infection and Predict Short-Term Mortality in Patients with Acutely Decompensated Cirrhosis.

Liver cirrhosis patients are highly susceptible to infections, affecting survival, but current parameters for detecting infection are not reliable enough in this population. We investigated the ability of white blood cell (WBC), ∆WBC, neutrophil and ∆neutrophil counts, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) and ∆NLR ratios and C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels to identify infection and predict short-term mortality in liver cirrhosis patients. We recruited 233 patients with liver cirrhosis hospitalized with acute decompensation (AD) who had an outpatient visit within 1 month (baseline laboratory data) and followed them for 90 days. Difference between laboratory values at baseline and the AD episode was defined as delta (∆) values of the parameters. Delta values did not increase the diagnostic and predictive ability of investigated parameters. The CRP level was found to be the best diagnostic marker for infection in patients with cirrhosis. However, NLR seems to be superior for short-term mortality prediction, better than the WBC count. Distinguishing inflammations of different origin is a remaining clinical challenge in acutely decompensated cirrhosis. Based on our results, NLR might be more suitable for predicting short-term mortality in patients with AD than the WBC count currently included in the CLIF-C AD score.

Right ventricle to pulmonary artery coupling as a predictor of perioperative outcome in patients with secondary mitral valve insufficiency.

The aim of the study was to assess some parameters of right ventricle (RV) function as predictors of short-term mortality in patients with severe secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) after mitral valve surgery. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 112 consecutive patients with severe SMR who had undergone mitral valve repair or replacement with or without concomitant coronary artery bypass surgery. We assessed RV to pulmonary artery coupling by calculating the ratio of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) to non-invasively estimated RV systolic pressure (RVSP). The study endpoint was 30 days post-procedural mortality. Overall, the 30-day mortality was 6%. TAPSE/RVSP ratio < 0.42 mm/mmHg was a significant predictor of mortality and remained so after adjusting for age and sex. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients with RVSP > 55 mmHg and those with TAPSE/RVSP ratio < 0.42 mm/mmHg had a lower survival probability. TAPSE/RVSP < 0.42 mm/mmHg is a strong predictor of short-term mortality in patients with SMR when considered for valve surgery.